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AI Stock Research: A Worked Example With SEC Filings

AI stock research means asking a specific question about a company and getting an answer you can trace to primary sources. This page works through one example from SEC filings: how much of NVIDIA’s revenue depends on a few customers.

What is AI stock research?

AI stock research uses an AI assistant to read a company’s filings, earnings, prices, and news, then organizes what it finds into evidence for and against a view. It saves reading time and makes comparison easier. It does not replace your judgment, and it is not investment advice. Quant AI keeps each question as a research thread, so you can follow up, challenge an answer, and come back when new filings arrive.

Example: how much does NVIDIA depend on a few customers?

A growth thesis that rests on a few buyers carries different risk from one that rests on many, so this example asks how concentrated NVIDIA’s revenue is and what the filings say could change that.

Sources: NVIDIA’s Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended January 25, 2026, filed February 25, 2026, and its Form 10-Q for the quarter ended July 26, 2026, filed August 26, 2026. Every figure below comes from these two filings. Prices, analyst estimates, and news are not used. Checked on October 27, 2026.

What the filings show

  • Growth: revenue was $215.9 billion in fiscal 2026, up 65% (10-K). In the quarter ended July 26, 2026 it was $96.2 billion, up 106% from a year earlier, and Data Center revenue was $89.0 billion, up 117% (10-Q).
  • Largest direct customers, full year: in fiscal 2026 one direct customer was 22% of revenue and another was 14%. In fiscal 2025 the figures were 12%, 11%, and 11% (10-K).
  • Largest direct customers, latest quarter: one direct customer was 16% of revenue in the quarter ended July 26, 2026. In the same quarter a year earlier, two were 23% and 16% (10-Q).
  • Largest direct customers, first half: three direct customers were 16%, 15%, and 13% of first-half fiscal 2027 revenue, against two at 20% and 15% a year earlier (10-Q).
  • Receivables: five direct customers made up 22%, 14%, 13%, 11%, and 10% of accounts receivable on July 26, 2026. On January 25, 2026 it was three customers at 25%, 18%, and 13% (10-Q).
  • Indirect buyers: NVIDIA estimates that some indirect customers are each 10% or more of revenue, and that one AI research and deployment company contributed a meaningful amount of revenue by buying cloud services from NVIDIA’s customers (10-Q).
  • Supply commitments: $279 billion on July 26, 2026, up from $119 billion in the previous quarter (10-Q).

Evidence that supports the growth thesis

  • Concentration eased at the top: the largest direct customer was 16% of revenue in the latest quarter, against 23% in the same quarter a year earlier.
  • Growth is spread across platforms: Hyperscale revenue more than doubled from a year earlier, and AI Clouds, Industrial, & Enterprise revenue rose 138% to $40.3 billion (10-Q, after NVIDIA recast prior periods).
  • Margins rose with the growth: gross margin was 75.0% against 72.4% a year earlier, which the 10-Q attributes to a better product mix from Blackwell Ultra.

Evidence that cuts against it

  • Concentration remains high: three direct customers were 44% of first-half revenue (16% + 15% + 13%), and five held 70% of receivables on July 26, 2026 (22% + 14% + 13% + 11% + 10%). The sums are calculated from the filings’ rounded percentages.
  • Orders can be cancelled: the 10-K says most sales are made on a purchase-order basis and customers can generally cancel, change, or delay purchases with little notice and without penalty.
  • NVIDIA is committing ahead of demand: $279 billion of supply commitments is larger than the $215.9 billion of revenue in all of fiscal 2026. The 10-Q says some supplier agreements can be cancelled or adjusted before firm orders are placed, but changes may add costs, and that customers may postpone purchases if data center capacity or capital is not available.

Assumptions behind the thesis

  • The largest buyers keep spending at or near the current pace.
  • Buyers can secure the data center space, power, and capital to deploy what they order. The filings list all three as possible limits.
  • Demand grows enough to absorb the $279 billion of supply commitments.

What would change the conclusion

  • The largest direct customer’s share of quarterly revenue rising back above the 23% reported a year earlier.
  • Data Center revenue falling from one quarter to the next while supply commitments keep rising.
  • Receivables concentrating again in fewer customers.

Conclusion

On these filings, NVIDIA’s revenue is still concentrated in a few buyers, but the largest direct customer’s share of quarterly revenue has fallen from 23% to 16% and growth now spans both hyperscale and other platforms. The thesis holds as long as the largest buyers keep spending and demand catches up with $279 billion of supply commitments. This is a reading of two filings. It is not a forecast and not a recommendation to buy or sell.

Sources and corrections

Percentages in the filings are rounded, and sums marked above are ours. If you find an error, write to [email protected] and we will correct this page.

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